Maritime Flow
Hormuz · Red Sea · Persian Gulf
Hormuz CRITICAL
Red Sea ELEVATED
21M bbl/day at risk
CRITICAL
IRGC Naval Vessels — Eastern Hormuz
3 IRGC fast-attack craft detected near shipping lane entrance. Tanker rerouting advised.
02:14 UTC
WARNING
Houthi Drone Swarm — Bab-el-Mandeb
4 commercial vessels diverted via Cape of Good Hope. Insurance surcharges +320%.
01:47 UTC
INFO
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower — Repositioning
CVN-69 carrier strike group now 180nm SE of Hormuz. 2 Arleigh Burke destroyers in escort.
00:55 UTC
21M
Bbl/Day at Risk
Strait of Hormuz throughput
34%
Traffic Diverted
vs 3-month average
312
Vessels Tracked
Live AIS — Gulf region
+320%
War Risk Premium
Lloyd's — Red Sea corridor
7
Tanker Incidents
Last 30 days
18
Warships Deployed
US/coalition in region
MarineTraffic AIS · Live vessel positions · Strait of Hormuz
Market Shock
Oil · Gas · Equities · Currency
Brent $91.40
Conflict premium +$14.20
CRITICAL
Brent Crude Breaks $92 — Flash Spike
Hormuz closure threat pushed Brent to $92.10 intraday. IEA emergency reserve release under consideration.
03:08 UTC
WARNING
Iranian Rial — Record Low vs USD
IRR at 590,000/USD on parallel market. Sanctions acceleration compounding currency collapse.
02:30 UTC
WARNING
OPEC+ Emergency Meeting Scheduled
Saudi Arabia called extraordinary session for supply coordination. Output decision expected +48h.
01:15 UTC
$91.40
Brent Crude
↑ +2.34% · ICE Futures
$87.15
WTI Crude
↑ +1.97% · NYMEX
$89.75
Dubai Crude
↑ +2.05% · Spot
€38.20
Nat. Gas TTF
↑ +4.10% · European
$14.20
Conflict Premium
Above pre-war baseline
590K
IRR/USD
Iranian Rial parallel mkt
BRENT CRUDE — UKOIL
WTI CRUDE — USOIL
NAT GAS — NGAS
USD/IRR — IRANIAN RIAL
Cyber Conflict
Iran-linked Operations · Live Threat Map
APT34/35 ACTIVE
SCADA threats ELEVATED
CRITICAL
APT34 (OilRig) — Israeli Critical Infrastructure
Spear-phishing campaign targeting Israeli water authority and power grid operators. 3 confirmed intrusions.
03:22 UTC
CRITICAL
Wiper Malware — Saudi Aramco Adjacent Systems
Shamoon variant detected in contractor network. Isolated from OT environment. Investigation ongoing.
02:05 UTC
WARNING
DDoS — US CENTCOM Web Infrastructure
~840 Gbps volumetric attack attributed to Iranian hacktivist group Cyber Avengers. Services degraded.
01:33 UTC
—
Attacks Today
Global tracked events
APT34
Primary Actor
Iran — OilRig / HelixKitten
Wiper
Dominant Vector
This hour
3
Critical Infra Hits
Power/water/oil today
840Gbps
Peak DDoS
Largest attack today
6
Active APT Groups
Iran-attributed
Check Point ThreatCloud · Live cyberattack map
Live Attack Stream
Humanitarian Impact
Displacement · Aid · Casualties · UNHCR Data
UNHCR API
Year: 2023
CRITICAL
Gaza — UN Declares Famine Conditions
OCHA confirms famine in northern Gaza. 1.1M people in catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5).
04:00 UTC
WARNING
Lebanon Displacement — 1.2M Internally Displaced
IDF operations in South Lebanon triggered largest displacement wave since 2006. UNHCR emergency response activated.
02:48 UTC
INFO
UNRWA Funding Gap — $1.6B Shortfall
Multiple donor countries suspended contributions following accusations. Operations at risk in 5 territories.
01:00 UTC
35.3M
Total Refugees
Global · UNHCR 2023
62.5M
IDPs
Internally displaced
6.1M
Asylum Seekers
Pending determination
131
Hosting Countries
Primary destinations
1.1M
Gaza IPC Phase 5
Catastrophic food insecurity
1.2M
Lebanon IDPs
Latest wave
Refugees by Country of Origin (Top 10)
Fetching UNHCR…
Top Host Countries
Fetching UNHCR…
Historical Displacement Trend — Middle East
Loading…
Humanitarian Aid Needs — Conflict-Affected Countries
Population in need of humanitarian assistance as % of total · OCHA 2024
Source: UNHCR Population API · api.unhcr.org/population/v1 · OCHA FTS · Updated annually
Military Tracker
Strike Events · Deployments · Weapons Systems · Order of Battle
Active operations 3
Escalation risk HIGH
STRIKE
Israeli Air Force — Isfahan Missile Facility
F-35I Adir strike package confirmed. 4 S-300 radar installations neutralised. Iranian S-300 response inoperative.
03:45 UTC
LAUNCH
Iran — Shahab-3 MRBM Test Launch
Medium-range ballistic missile test from Semnan. Range estimated 1,300km. CENTCOM tracking confirmed.
02:10 UTC
DEPLOY
US B-52 Bombers — Diego Garcia
6 B-52H Stratofortress aircraft repositioned from Minot AFB. Strategic deterrence signal to Tehran.
00:30 UTC
47
Strike Events
Last 30 days
312
Missiles Fired
All actors combined
89
Drone Attacks
Houthi + IRGC
74%
Intercept Rate
Iron Dome / David's Sling
6
Carrier Groups
US deployed — CENTCOM
3
Active Fronts
Gaza · Lebanon · Yemen
Recent Strike Events
Mar 09 · 03:45 UTC
IAF Strike — Isfahan Missile Facility, Iran
F-35I package destroyed S-300 radar nodes. First direct IAF strike on Iranian soil in 2025.
Mar 08 · 21:00 UTC
Houthi Ballistic — Red Sea Commercial Vessel
MV Tutor struck by anti-ship ballistic missile 80nm NW of Hodeidah. Crew evacuated.
Mar 08 · 14:30 UTC
Iran IRGC — Drone Swarm, Northern Israel
Wave of 34 Shahed-136 loitering munitions. 31 intercepted by IAF/Arrow system. 3 impacted.
Mar 07 · 08:15 UTC
US Navy — Houthi Launch Site Destroyed
USS Carney Tomahawk strikes hit 3 mobile launch vehicles near Sanaa. Secondary explosions confirmed.
Mar 06 · 19:50 UTC
Hezbollah — Rocket Barrage, Haifa District
127 rockets fired from South Lebanon. Iron Dome intercept rate 91%. 4 residential injuries.
Order of Battle — Key Systems
| System | Actor | Range | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shahab-3 MRBM | 🇮🇷 Iran | 1,300km | ACTIVE |
| Fattah-1 HGV | 🇮🇷 Iran | 1,400km | TESTED |
| Shahed-136 | 🇮🇷 IRGC | 2,500km | DEPLOYED |
| F-35I Adir | 🇮🇱 IAF | ~1,000km | ACTIVE |
| Arrow-3 ABM | 🇮🇱 Israel | 2,400km | ONLINE |
| B-52H Stratofortress | 🇺🇸 USAF | Global | REPOSITIONED |
| CVN-69 Eisenhower | 🇺🇸 USN | Regional | HORMUZ |
| Qader Anti-Ship | 🇮🇷 IRGC | 300km | READY |
| Fateh-110 | 🇮🇷 Iran | 300km | ACTIVE |
| Burkan-3 MRBM | 🇾🇪 Houthi | 1,200km | ACTIVE |
Escalation Intensity — 90-Day Rolling
Sanctions & Trade
Iran Sanctions Regime · Oil Embargo · Trade Flows · OFAC
OFAC entities 1,700+
Oil exports RESTRICTED
NEW
OFAC — 14 Entities Designated (Iran Oil Network)
Treasury designates front companies in UAE, Hong Kong, and Malaysia facilitating Iranian crude exports via shadow fleet.
04:00 UTC
UPDATE
EU 14th Sanctions Package — Final Vote
European Parliament votes on expanded dual-use technology restrictions and additional IRGC designations. Decision imminent.
02:20 UTC
INFO
Iran-China Oil Trade — $8.7B Q1 2025
China absorbed 92% of Iranian crude exports in Q1 despite sanctions, paying ~$10/bbl discount. Record quarterly volume.
00:45 UTC
1,700+
OFAC Designations
Iran-related entities
$30B
Frozen Assets
US + EU combined
2.4M
Bbl/Day Lost
Iran pre-sanction capacity
92%
China Oil Absorption
Of total Iran exports
$8.7B
Iran–China Q1 Trade
2025 · Oil only
$10
Sanctions Discount
Per barrel vs Brent
Recent OFAC / EU Designations
| Entity | Jurisdiction | Reason | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepehr Energy JSC | 🇮🇷 Iran | Oil revenue | Mar 09 |
| Pacific Diamond Int'l | 🇭🇰 HK | IRGC financing | Mar 09 |
| Al Noor Trading LLC | 🇦🇪 UAE | Shadow fleet | Mar 09 |
| Pars Oil & Gas FZE | 🇦🇪 UAE | Crude evasion | Mar 05 |
| IRGC Aerospace Force | 🇮🇷 Iran | Missile program | Feb 28 |
| Kimia Pars Chem. | 🇮🇷 Iran | Dual-use chem | Feb 22 |
| Noor Energy Sdn Bhd | 🇲🇾 Malaysia | Oil tranship. | Feb 18 |
| Mahan Air | 🇮🇷 Iran | IRGC transport | Feb 15 |
Iran Oil Export Destinations (2025 Est.)
Iran Sanctioned Oil Revenue vs Capacity — Annual ($B)
Shadow Fleet — Sanction Evasion Routes
| Route | Method | Volume | Buyer | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island → Ningbo | AIS spoofing, STS transfer | 820K bbl/d | 🇨🇳 China | ACTIVE |
| Bandar Abbas → Jamnagar | Blended/re-labelled | 180K bbl/d | 🇮🇳 India | MONITORED |
| Khor Fakkan → Fujairah STS | Dark ship transfer | 110K bbl/d | 🇦🇪 UAE | ACTIVE |
| DPRK re-export chain | Flag of convenience | 40K bbl/d | 🇰🇵 DPRK | SUSPECTED |
Diplomatic Intel
Negotiations · Back-Channels · UN · Bilateral Posture
JCPOA status COLLAPSED
Ceasefire talks STALLED
BREAKING
Qatar Back-Channel — Prisoner Exchange Framework
Qatari FM confirms indirect US–Iran communication channel active. 4 US detainees discussed. No deal confirmed.
04:10 UTC
UPDATE
UNSC Resolution 2728 — Gaza Ceasefire
US abstained. Resolution passed 14-0-1. Implementation mechanism disputed. Iran rejects external monitoring provisions.
03:00 UTC
INFO
IAEA — Iran Enrichment Monitoring Suspended
Iran blocked IAEA inspector access to Fordow facility for 19th consecutive day. 60% enriched uranium stockpile growing.
01:30 UTC
DEAD
JCPOA Status
Nuclear deal — collapsed 2022
60%
Enrichment Level
Iran U-235 · IAEA est.
19
Days IAEA Blocked
Fordow facility access
3
Active Mediators
Qatar · Oman · Switzerland
14
UNSC Resolutions
On Iran since 2006
STALLED
Ceasefire Talks
Gaza — Doha channel
Diplomatic Timeline — Key Events
Mar 09, 2025
Qatar Back-Channel Confirmed
Indirect US-Iran talks on prisoner exchange. 4 American detainees on agenda. Oil sanctions relief offered as incentive.
Mar 05, 2025
UNSC Resolution 2728 Passed
Gaza ceasefire resolution. US abstained. Iran rejected external monitoring. Hamas studying terms.
Feb 20, 2025
Iran Expels IAEA Inspectors — Fordow
Tehran suspended advanced monitoring at Fordow enrichment facility citing "security concerns."
Jan 15, 2025
Vienna JCPOA Talks — Permanently Suspended
EU coordinator confirms no path to resumption. Iran's 60% enrichment and IAEA access refusal cited as insurmountable.
Dec 2024
Saudi-Iran Normalisation — Held Steady
2023 Beijing-brokered normalisation survives proxy conflict pressures. Ambassadors remain in post.
Bilateral Diplomatic Posture
| Country | Position | Key Lever | Posture |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | Back-channel | Sanctions relief | CAUTIOUS |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | Military option | Airpower | ESCALATORY |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | Mediator | Hamas channel | ENGAGED |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | Mediator | US-Iran relay | ACTIVE |
| 🇨🇳 China | Economic stake | Oil imports | NEUTRAL |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | Aligned w/ Iran | UNSC veto | HOSTILE |
| 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇧 E3 | JCPOA monitors | Snapback clause | WARNING |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | Normalisation | OPEC leverage | STABLE |
Iran Nuclear Programme — Enrichment Stockpile (kg · IAEA estimates)
Active Negotiation Tracks
| Track | Parties | Mediator | Subject | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar Back-Channel | US ↔ Iran | 🇶🇦 Qatar FM | Prisoners + sanctions | ACTIVE |
| Doha Gaza Talks | Israel ↔ Hamas | 🇶🇦 Qatar + 🇪🇬 Egypt | Ceasefire + hostages | STALLED |
| Muscat Channel | US ↔ Iran | 🇴🇲 Oman | Nuclear limits | DORMANT |
| IAEA-Iran Talks | IAEA ↔ Iran | — | Inspector access | BROKEN |
| E3 Snapback | UK/FR/DE ↔ Iran | EU HRVP | Sanctions reimposition | DELIBERATING |